In 2023, companies are increasingly aware of the potentially disruptive impact of quantum computing (QC) if it is successfully developed and commercialized. This technology promises to transform businesses by addressing problems considered intractable with exponentially growing complexity, beyond the reach of conventional high-performance computers. The problems that QC can solve fall into four main categories: simulation, optimization, machine learning (ML), and cryptography. The applications for businesses are nearly limitless, from fully digitalized drug discovery to supply chain management and portfolio optimization.
The Quantum Computing Revolution
QC technology is extremely complex and difficult to understand even for the smartest generalists. Constantly, stories and announcements about new developments and supposed breakthroughs appear in the media. Clarifying this "fog" is a challenge. This Blue Shift report by Arthur D. Little (ADL) aims to provide a clear view of the current state for business readers unfamiliar with the domain, sharing not only potential use cases and applications but also technological development, including hardware and software, and highlighting key players in the QC ecosystem. We also offer our perspective on the likelihood and possible timelines for QC commercialization.
Potential Use Cases and Applications
QC promises to revolutionize entire industries by solving simulation, optimization, and ML problems that are unapproachable for traditional computers. For example:
- Simulation: Enables more accurate simulations in fields such as quantum chemistry and particle physics, facilitating discoveries in drugs and materials.
- Optimization: Improves efficiency in supply chain management, logistics, and financial planning.
- Machine Learning (ML): Accelerates the development of machine learning algorithms, enhancing artificial intelligence and its practical applications.
- Cryptography: Challenges and potentially strengthens current security systems by creating new encryption methods.
Challenges and Obstacles
Today, QC has not progressed beyond the laboratory scale, although it is integrated into some commercial offerings. There are still enormous technical and engineering challenges to overcome. A large-scale, fault-tolerant, general-purpose device that can provide technical and commercial advantages over conventional computers is many years away, and there is no certainty that it will be achieved. However, we have recently seen a rapid acceleration in investment and activity in QC development, which will certainly continue in the coming years.
Investments and Development
Declared public investment exceeds $25 billion, with more than 50 venture capital deals in 2021. More than 20 new prototype devices are expected in providers' published roadmaps between now and 2030. We expect some progress in achieving the so-called quantum advantage in specific, limited applications over the next few years, possibly involving quantum simulators and/or hybrid solutions combining conventional and quantum processing. There may be an early breakthrough, but of course, this is impossible to predict with certainty.
Recommendations for Businesses
Given the current situation, we recommend that businesses that have not yet done so take action now to ensure they do not fall behind. The QC learning curve is steep. It will not be possible, especially in the early stages of commercialization, for inexperienced users to simply do nothing until the technology matures, purchase access to quantum processing power, and expect to make transformative changes to their business operations. Additionally, as the technology begins to mature, the open sharing of intelligence and data across the global QC ecosystem may cease, driven by commercial and geopolitical pressures. Companies without internal capability could be particularly disadvantaged.
In summary, quantum computing has the potential to radically change the business landscape in the coming years. Companies must prepare now by developing internal capabilities and becoming part of the QC ecosystem to seize the opportunities and face the challenges this technology will bring.